Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
